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2023/01/19阅读:15主题:自定义主题1

伯克希尔股东大会 2022 精彩片段翻译

对喜欢老巴的人来说,除了老巴自己写的致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的信之外,伯克希尔股东大会也是非常好的资料,下面是我个人翻译的 2022 年伯克希尔股东大会问答环节的精彩片段,包括中英双语对照,以及对个别段落我自己的一些理解。

工作

I would tell the students, as I wrote in the report, I mean, you know, “Find out what you love doing.” I mean, you spend most of your life doing it, and why in the world would you want to be around for a lifetime working with people that you didn’t like? Unless you had to, which sometimes happens. Just work for whomever you admire the most.

我想告诉学生们,就像我在今年致股东信中写到的,努力找到你喜欢做的事。你一生的大部分时间都会花在自己的工作上,那你到底为什么非要一辈子都和你不喜欢的人一起工作呢?如果你确实迫不得已,那还可以理解。不然的话,还是去为你最喜欢和景仰的人工作吧。

We worked at everything till we found the ideal employers: ourselves. You know? And that was something we really admired.

我和芒格也做过其他工作,后来我们发现还是自己当老板最开心,而且投资也是我们发自内心热爱的事情。

Nobody’s waiting to retire, or have their options vested, or thinking about — we don’t have anybody that’s thinking about, should I take another job? You know, they’re doing what they want to do in life.

在伯克希尔,没有人盼着退休,没有人盼着行使自己的期权,没人想换工作,因为我们在伯克希尔做的就是自己最喜欢的事。

But the best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something. If you’re the best doctor in town, if you’re the best lawyer in town, if you’re the best whatever it may be, no matter whether people are paying you with a zillion dollars or paying with — they’re going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver. And if you’re the one they pick out to do any particular activity, sing, or play baseball, or be their lawyer, whatever it may be, whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you, they can’t actually be inflated away from you. So, the best investment by far is anything that develops yourself. And, again, it’s not taxed. So that’s what I would do.

最好的不受通货膨胀影响的方法,就是你自己成为某个领域的专家。如果你是镇上最好的医生、律师或者无论在哪个方面做到最好,那么不管发生多么严重的通货膨胀,其他人都会心甘情愿拿出他们的一部分收入来换取你的服务,有可能这部分收入对应的现金是一兆亿美元。如果人们欣赏你的能力,比如你是最好的歌手、棒球运动员或者律师,你拥有的本事是别人抢不走的,所以通货膨胀根本没法影响你。所以,最好的投资就是投资自己,培养自己独一无二的能力,而且这还不用交税,如果我是你的话,我就会这么做。

But, just figure out what you’d like to be, and figure out how — and what you’d like to be is what you’re going to likely be good at, and, you know you stumble into what you really like doing, what you’re good at, what is useful to society. And then it doesn’t make any difference what the dollar bill, you know, is now worth, in terms of the purchasing power, a cent, or a half-a-cent, or a hundredth of a cent.

首先,你要尽力找到自己喜欢做的事,如果你真的喜欢,那么大概率这件事你能做好。其次,你还要考虑自己有没有这方面的天赋。不断坚持做自己喜欢的、擅长的、对社会有用的事。如果你有真本事,无论 1 美元的购买力怎么变,哪怕变成一半甚至百分之一,你都会毫发无伤,不受任何影响。

Charlie would say, you know, just write your obituary and reverse engineer it.

查理说,你先想一想,自己去世的时候希望别人怎么给你盖棺定论,想明白了之后就知道自己现在应该干啥了。

Figure out what you’re bad at and avoid all of it.

找出你不喜欢做什么,然后不去做就好了。(注:查理最擅长的就是反过来想)

You’d think, if you’re smart, you could do things that don’t interest you well. But you can’t.

你可能会这么想:如果我足够聪明,我其实也可以把自己不那么热爱的事做得很好。但实际上,如果你不热爱自己做的事,你就没法做好

投资

投资的定义

Going back to investing, I mean, investing is laying out money now with the hope of getting back more later on. It’s really laying out purchasing power now with the hope of getting more purchasing power back. But that’s the way you learn in the textbooks, that you defer consumption now so you can consume more later on, so that you can take care of your family — all these things about how investment takes place.

说回投资,投资就是现在投入一些钱,希望未来能够拿回更多的钱。更确切地说,投资就是现在放弃一些购买力,希望未来获得更多购买力。这正是你从教科书中学到的投资的定义,如果你现在不消费把钱用于投资,以后就能买到更多东西,从而让家庭变得更好,这就是投资的意义。

华尔街和投机者

Sometimes the market is quite investment oriented. It’s not like it — it’s always what you’ve read about in the books and everything — what capital markets are supposed to do, and you study it in school and all that. And other times, it’s almost totally a casino, and it’s a gambling parlor. And that existed to an extraordinary degree in the last couple of years — encouraged by Wall Street because the money is in turning over stocks. But they don’t make money unless people do things and if they get a piece of them. And they make a lot more money when people are gambling than when they’re investing. It’s much better to have somebody that’s going to trade 20 times a day and get all excited about it, just like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

很多时候市场是有效的,就像参与者都在投资一样。它就像你在书中学到的那样,这是一个有效市场。然而有些时候,市场完全变成了一个赌场。受华尔街的影响,近几年股票的换手率越来越高,市场的赌博风气愈演愈烈。如果股民们不折腾折腾,华尔街的人们是赚不到钱的,只有股民使劲折腾,他们才能赚钱。股民们的赌性越重,华尔街就赚得越多。最好股民一天能交易 20 次,而且乐此不疲,就像来回拉拽老虎机的拉杆一样。

But, overwhelmingly, large companies in America — well, all of them — they became poker chips. And people were buying and selling like three-day calls or two-day calls. And the more times people pull the handle on the machine, the more money the machine makes. And the people that were making money were people that worked with gamblers.

然而,大多数美国大型公司,好吧,其实是全部美国大型公司,它们的股票都变成了牌桌上的筹码,人们不断地买入和卖出这些公司两到三天内到期的看涨期权。人们按下老虎机手柄的次数越多,老虎机就赚的就越多。赚钱的其实是那些陪着赌徒玩,但自己不赌博的人

And I said to my wife, I said, you know, I’m going to get rich. I mean, how can you miss? If people are willing to do this(gambling), you know, this is a land of opportunity.

我当时就对妻子说道,你懂的,我会变得很有钱。我的意思是,我怎么可能一直穷下去呢?如果身边的其他人都热衷于赌博,那这里简直就是致富的圣土

We’ve got people that know nothing about stocks being advised by stockbrokers, who know even less.

股市中的股民对股票几乎一无所知,他们听取券商经纪人的建议,而券商经纪人对股票懂的更少。

市场先生

But that’s why markets do crazy things. And occasionally, Berkshire gets a chance to do something. It’s not because we’re smart. It’s because we’re — the only thing I can say we’re qualified on — and sometimes I wonder about that — but I think we’re sane. You know, I mean, and that’s the main requirement in this business.

市场有时候会很疯狂,这种时候就是伯克希尔出手的好机会。这倒不是因为我们有多聪明,而是因为我们足够理智,这是我唯一确信我们所拥有的的很突出的优势。理智是所有投资者都应该拥有的特质。

I mean, we depend on mispriced businesses through a mechanism where we’re not responsible for the mispricing of them. And overall, we learned something a long time ago, that it doesn’t take a high IQ. It doesn’t take anything. It just takes the right attitude.

好企业被错杀的时候就是我们出手的时机,但这些企业被错杀和我们没关系,而是其他卖家导致的。我们很早就懂得了这个道理,那就是投资并不需要高智商,也不需要其他有的没的,只需要正确的心态

The one thing you have to do is be prepared when opportunity comes. You really do have to just move. There’s so much luck, but you do have to be mentally prepared to do something when it makes sense, and do it big time, and do it instantly. And then you’ve got to be sure you’ve got the resources to do it.

你唯一要做的是做好万全的准备,等待机会的来临。当机会来临,你就要迅速行动。当然,运气也很重要。但是运气是没法掌控的,所以你能做的就是做好准备,当真正的好机会来临时,立即出手,而且要敢于下重注,因为这时候你已经知道,你之前万事俱备,就是为了这个机会。

回购

If you do it at the right price, there’s nothing better than buying in your own business.

如果自己公司的股票价格诱人,那么回购其实就是最好的投资选择。

And if you’ve got the money around to do it, and the price is attractive, and you don’t have some other opportunities, you know, why not do it? You’ve got to come out ahead by doing it. And if you’ve got other things that are more intelligent, you don’t do it. And if it isn’t intelligent on an absolute basis, you also don’t do it.

如果你碰巧有钱,公司股价又很有吸引力,而你又没有其他的投资机会,当然可以回购,长远来讲这肯定对公司和股东有利。如果你有更好的投资机会,你当然不需要回购,而如果公司股价本来就很高,你当然也不需要回购。(注:投资永远是比较,将资产放在更好的机会上。)

择时

The interesting thing is, you know, obviously we haven’t the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do when it opens on Monday. We never have had. We have never made — Charlie and I — I don’t think in all the time we’ve worked together — and I’ll tell you something later on maybe about how learning takes place — but we have never — I don’t think we’ve ever made a decision where either one of us has either said or been thinking, we should buy or sell based on what the market’s going to do.

最有意思的是,我们自己其实根本不知道下周一股市开盘时会怎样,其实我们从来不知道股市会怎么走。我和查理合作这么些年来,从来没有一次是通过预测市场走势来做出买入或卖出的决策

You know, we spent a big percentage of our net worth at a very dumb time. I shouldn’t say we, it’s I. We spent about 15 or 16 billion dollars — which was a lot bigger to us then than it is now — we spent it in the last few weeks, over a period of three or four weeks — between Wrigley and Goldman Sachs and generally — at a terrible time, as it turned out. I mean, I didn’t know whether it was going to be a good time or a bad time, but it was a really dumb time.

2008 年的时候,我和查理在股市下跌到半山腰的时候就已经打完了大部分子弹。或许不应该说我和查理,其实是我自己干的。我们当时买入了 150 还是 160 亿美元的股票,这在当时算是很重的仓位了,当然现在我们的规模更大了,所以这些钱显得没那么多。我们在几周之内就把这些子弹打完了,买入了箭牌和高盛,现在回过头来看,买的时机其实不怎么样。我的意思是,我当时不知道我们买了之后股价是涨还是跌,但后来证明我们买入后它们还在跌。

We have not been good at timing. We’ve been reasonably good at figuring out when we were getting enough for our money. And we had no idea when we bought anything — well, we always hoped it would go down for a while so we could buy more, and we hoped even after we were done buying and ran out of money that if it was cheap the company would keep buying, in effect, taking our interest up.

我们不善于择时,我们只能大概知道股价是不是够便宜。不管买入什么股票,我们都不知道买入之后股价是涨还是跌。不过说真的,每次买入股票后,我们其实希望股价能再多跌一些时间,这样我们就可以用同样的钱买到更多的股份。而且就算我们已经把子弹全部打完,没钱继续买了,我们还是希望我们买的股票能继续跌,这样公司就能低价回购,而回购后我们的持股比例也会上升

正直诚实

I mean, you know, I can, within gap accounting, I can play a lot of games with numbers. We’ve done a lot-ta dumb things at Berkshire. We have never told anybody that the number had to be this or that or to change anything. I mean once you start it, it’s all over. You can’t quit. It’s like taking $5 out of the cash register. You know, the first time you take the five bucks out, you’ll say, “Well, I’m going to put it back.” And then do it a few times, and you’ll never stop. In fact, do it once and you probably never stop. But if something is going to be destructive, the thing to do is not start it.

在 GAAP 框架内,我可以随意调节利润。伯克希尔犯过很多错,但是我们从来没有要求员工按照我们设定的目标去调整利润,也没对财务数据做过手脚。这种事不能做,一旦做了,就不会回头。就像一个人从收银机偷了 5 块钱,第一次的时候,他会对自己说:“我只是暂时拿去用,后面会还回来的。”后来又偷了几次,就偷上瘾,没法停下来了。这种事情一旦开了头,基本上就不会再收手了

Recognizing reality, when it’s really awful, and taking appropriate action, just involves, often, just the most elementary good sense.

第一步是承认现状确实很糟,然后采取合适的行动,这是最明智的举动。

其他

We try to find something that a guy with Alzheimer’s can run, actually.

实际上,我们试图寻找那些阿尔茨海默症患者也能运营的公司。

Cash is like oxygen. It’s there all the time. But if it disappears for a few minutes, it’s all over.

现金就像氧气,平时你感觉不到,而一旦短暂失去,就什么都完了。

That explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got.

这就是生产性资产和击鼓传花类资产的区别,对于后者而言,你只能期望有人来接盘才能获利。(注:如果公司真的一直赚的真钱,而且赚的越来越多,那么投资不需要接盘侠)

we start with focusing on our customer, understanding how we can best service them, and, yes, we want to do it in an efficient and effective way that delivers great results back to our shareholders.

我们关注我们的客户,尽量为他们提供满意的服务,同时尽可能提高效率,尽量满足客户的需求,这样也会给我们的股东带来回报。

But he just ignored the investment side, and that was as important as the underwriting side.

(竞争对手保险公司)忽略了投资方面,对于保险公司而言,投资其实和保单同样重要。(注:一般保险公司的浮存金都会用于投资)

And then there’s something that just all gets rearranged in your mind, and, you know, you can say, well, why didn’t I see this five years ago? But I’ve had it happen a few times, obviously — and everybody here has — just in different areas of their lives. And you think, how could I have been so stupid?

有时候你的头脑会突然灵光一闪,你会想,天啊,五年前我怎么没想到原来是这样?我自己有过几次这样的时刻,而且很明显,在座各位都体会过这种恍然大悟,当然每个人恍然大悟的事情和想法可能不太一样。你会想,我之前怎么会这么蠢,竟然连这都没想到。

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