伯克希尔股东大会 2022 精彩片段翻译
对喜欢老巴的人来说，除了老巴自己写的致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的信之外，伯克希尔股东大会也是非常好的资料，下面是我个人翻译的 2022 年伯克希尔股东大会问答环节的精彩片段，包括中英双语对照，以及对个别段落我自己的一些理解。
I would tell the students, as I wrote in the report, I mean, you know, “Find out what you love doing.” I mean, you spend most of your life doing it, and why in the world would you want to be around for a lifetime working with people that you didn’t like? Unless you had to, which sometimes happens. Just work for whomever you admire the most.
We worked at everything till we found the ideal employers: ourselves. You know? And that was something we really admired.
Nobody’s waiting to retire, or have their options vested, or thinking about — we don’t have anybody that’s thinking about, should I take another job? You know, they’re doing what they want to do in life.
But the best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something. If you’re the best doctor in town, if you’re the best lawyer in town, if you’re the best whatever it may be, no matter whether people are paying you with a zillion dollars or paying with — they’re going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver. And if you’re the one they pick out to do any particular activity, sing, or play baseball, or be their lawyer, whatever it may be, whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you, they can’t actually be inflated away from you. So, the best investment by far is anything that develops yourself. And, again, it’s not taxed. So that’s what I would do.
But, just figure out what you’d like to be, and figure out how — and what you’d like to be is what you’re going to likely be good at, and, you know you stumble into what you really like doing, what you’re good at, what is useful to society. And then it doesn’t make any difference what the dollar bill, you know, is now worth, in terms of the purchasing power, a cent, or a half-a-cent, or a hundredth of a cent.
首先，你要尽力找到自己喜欢做的事，如果你真的喜欢，那么大概率这件事你能做好。其次，你还要考虑自己有没有这方面的天赋。不断坚持做自己喜欢的、擅长的、对社会有用的事。如果你有真本事，无论 1 美元的购买力怎么变，哪怕变成一半甚至百分之一，你都会毫发无伤，不受任何影响。
Charlie would say, you know, just write your obituary and reverse engineer it.
Figure out what you’re bad at and avoid all of it.
You’d think, if you’re smart, you could do things that don’t interest you well. But you can’t.
Going back to investing, I mean, investing is laying out money now with the hope of getting back more later on. It’s really laying out purchasing power now with the hope of getting more purchasing power back. But that’s the way you learn in the textbooks, that you defer consumption now so you can consume more later on, so that you can take care of your family — all these things about how investment takes place.
Sometimes the market is quite investment oriented. It’s not like it — it’s always what you’ve read about in the books and everything — what capital markets are supposed to do, and you study it in school and all that. And other times, it’s almost totally a casino, and it’s a gambling parlor. And that existed to an extraordinary degree in the last couple of years — encouraged by Wall Street because the money is in turning over stocks. But they don’t make money unless people do things and if they get a piece of them. And they make a lot more money when people are gambling than when they’re investing. It’s much better to have somebody that’s going to trade 20 times a day and get all excited about it, just like pulling the handle on a slot machine.
很多时候市场是有效的，就像参与者都在投资一样。它就像你在书中学到的那样，这是一个有效市场。然而有些时候，市场完全变成了一个赌场。受华尔街的影响，近几年股票的换手率越来越高，市场的赌博风气愈演愈烈。如果股民们不折腾折腾，华尔街的人们是赚不到钱的，只有股民使劲折腾，他们才能赚钱。股民们的赌性越重，华尔街就赚得越多。最好股民一天能交易 20 次，而且乐此不疲，就像来回拉拽老虎机的拉杆一样。
But, overwhelmingly, large companies in America — well, all of them — they became poker chips. And people were buying and selling like three-day calls or two-day calls. And the more times people pull the handle on the machine, the more money the machine makes. And the people that were making money were people that worked with gamblers.
And I said to my wife, I said, you know, I’m going to get rich. I mean, how can you miss? If people are willing to do this(gambling), you know, this is a land of opportunity.
We’ve got people that know nothing about stocks being advised by stockbrokers, who know even less.
But that’s why markets do crazy things. And occasionally, Berkshire gets a chance to do something. It’s not because we’re smart. It’s because we’re — the only thing I can say we’re qualified on — and sometimes I wonder about that — but I think we’re sane. You know, I mean, and that’s the main requirement in this business.
I mean, we depend on mispriced businesses through a mechanism where we’re not responsible for the mispricing of them. And overall, we learned something a long time ago, that it doesn’t take a high IQ. It doesn’t take anything. It just takes the right attitude.
The one thing you have to do is be prepared when opportunity comes. You really do have to just move. There’s so much luck, but you do have to be mentally prepared to do something when it makes sense, and do it big time, and do it instantly. And then you’ve got to be sure you’ve got the resources to do it.
If you do it at the right price, there’s nothing better than buying in your own business.
And if you’ve got the money around to do it, and the price is attractive, and you don’t have some other opportunities, you know, why not do it? You’ve got to come out ahead by doing it. And if you’ve got other things that are more intelligent, you don’t do it. And if it isn’t intelligent on an absolute basis, you also don’t do it.
The interesting thing is, you know, obviously we haven’t the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do when it opens on Monday. We never have had. We have never made — Charlie and I — I don’t think in all the time we’ve worked together — and I’ll tell you something later on maybe about how learning takes place — but we have never — I don’t think we’ve ever made a decision where either one of us has either said or been thinking, we should buy or sell based on what the market’s going to do.
You know, we spent a big percentage of our net worth at a very dumb time. I shouldn’t say we, it’s I. We spent about 15 or 16 billion dollars — which was a lot bigger to us then than it is now — we spent it in the last few weeks, over a period of three or four weeks — between Wrigley and Goldman Sachs and generally — at a terrible time, as it turned out. I mean, I didn’t know whether it was going to be a good time or a bad time, but it was a really dumb time.
2008 年的时候，我和查理在股市下跌到半山腰的时候就已经打完了大部分子弹。或许不应该说我和查理，其实是我自己干的。我们当时买入了 150 还是 160 亿美元的股票，这在当时算是很重的仓位了，当然现在我们的规模更大了，所以这些钱显得没那么多。我们在几周之内就把这些子弹打完了，买入了箭牌和高盛，现在回过头来看，买的时机其实不怎么样。我的意思是，我当时不知道我们买了之后股价是涨还是跌，但后来证明我们买入后它们还在跌。
We have not been good at timing. We’ve been reasonably good at figuring out when we were getting enough for our money. And we had no idea when we bought anything — well, we always hoped it would go down for a while so we could buy more, and we hoped even after we were done buying and ran out of money that if it was cheap the company would keep buying, in effect, taking our interest up.
I mean, you know, I can, within gap accounting, I can play a lot of games with numbers. We’ve done a lot-ta dumb things at Berkshire. We have never told anybody that the number had to be this or that or to change anything. I mean once you start it, it’s all over. You can’t quit. It’s like taking $5 out of the cash register. You know, the first time you take the five bucks out, you’ll say, “Well, I’m going to put it back.” And then do it a few times, and you’ll never stop. In fact, do it once and you probably never stop. But if something is going to be destructive, the thing to do is not start it.
在 GAAP 框架内，我可以随意调节利润。伯克希尔犯过很多错，但是我们从来没有要求员工按照我们设定的目标去调整利润，也没对财务数据做过手脚。这种事不能做，一旦做了，就不会回头。就像一个人从收银机偷了 5 块钱，第一次的时候，他会对自己说：“我只是暂时拿去用，后面会还回来的。”后来又偷了几次，就偷上瘾，没法停下来了。这种事情一旦开了头，基本上就不会再收手了。
Recognizing reality, when it’s really awful, and taking appropriate action, just involves, often, just the most elementary good sense.
We try to find something that a guy with Alzheimer’s can run, actually.
Cash is like oxygen. It’s there all the time. But if it disappears for a few minutes, it’s all over.
That explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got.
we start with focusing on our customer, understanding how we can best service them, and, yes, we want to do it in an efficient and effective way that delivers great results back to our shareholders.
But he just ignored the investment side, and that was as important as the underwriting side.
And then there’s something that just all gets rearranged in your mind, and, you know, you can say, well, why didn’t I see this five years ago? But I’ve had it happen a few times, obviously — and everybody here has — just in different areas of their lives. And you think, how could I have been so stupid?