张春成

V2

2022/07/07阅读:9主题:默认主题

如果时间是条河

如果时间是条河

尽管空间旅行的速度越来越快,但人类目前的技术还无法跨越时间。如果时间是条河,那么人们只能随波逐流,因此,你的起点就决定了你的终点。


年轮

外国人很会玩,他们把年龄段区分得非常细,比如

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Boomers, Gen X, Gen Y, Gen Z, and Gen A explained

简单来说,目前活跃的人群可以分为以下年龄段

The breakdown by age looks like this:

  • Baby Boomers: Baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. They're currently between 57-75 years old (71.6 million in the U.S.)
  • Gen X: Gen X was born between 1965 and 1979/80 and is currently between 41-56 years old (65.2 million people in the U.S.)
  • Gen Y: Gen Y, or Millennials, were born between 1981 and 1994/6. They are currently between 25 and 40 years old (72.1 million in the U.S.)
    • Gen Y.1 = 25-29 years old (around 31 million people in the U.S.)
    • Gen Y.2 = 29-39 (around 42 million people in the U.S.)
  • Gen Z: Gen Z is the newest generation, born between 1997 and 2012. They are currently between 9 and 24 years old (nearly 68 million in the U.S.)
  • Gen A: Generation Alpha starts with children born in 2012 and will continue at least through 2025, maybe later (approximately 48 million people in the U.S.)
  • The term “Millennial” has become the popular way to reference both segments of Gen Y (more on Y.1 and Y.2 below).

除此之外,还有一个比较模糊的名词,称为 Silent Generation。silent代表他们在信息时代并不活跃。它既是一个时间概念,又是一个地理概念

  • 时间:An often-used range, however, is 1928–1945. These years span from the beginning of the Great Depression to the end of World War II. People born during this time are also sometimes called “Radio Babies” or “Traditionalists.”
  • 地理:The term “Silent Generation” mainly refers to people living in the United States, but in some other parts of the world, war and economic trouble led to similar characteristics and behaviors in people born during this time.

可以总结成如下表格

Term Atlas Population (million) Start (year) Stop (year)
Silent 1928 1945
Boomer 71.6 1946 1964
Gen X 65.2 1965 1979
Gen Y Millennials 72.1 1981 1994
Gen Y.1 Millennials 31 1981 1984
Gen Y.2 Millennials 42 1985 1994
Gen Z 68 1997 2012
Gen A 48 2012

机会

美国的一些职场统计表明,Boomer 这一代,或者直接称为“二战结束后的婴儿潮”这一代人,在劳动力市场上是具有优势地位的。

The Boomer Blockade: How One Generation Reshaped Work

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那句话他们是怎么说的来着?对对对,就是 00 后“整顿”职场那句。00后怎么整顿的我没看到,但 Boomer 却是实打实地 Reshape (重塑)了劳动力市场。

他们获得了更大比例的工作机会,下图中间的眼睛区域,代表一个此消彼长的过程。1980年到2000年这20年间,这一代人几乎是排他性地占有了大量工作机会。

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更加详细来说,他们占主导地位的情况,再也没有重现过。这里的主导地位代表1980,1990和2000年这3个十年间,他们的比例远大于其他年龄段。

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接下来,再看看头部的情况,看看目前美国标普500的 CEO 们的年龄分布,它呈现出一个不寻常的上升趋势,表现为企业 CEO 的年龄日益增长,有种与企业共同成长的感觉。

S&P 500 Companies List by Market Capitalization 2022

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对他们的出生年份进行统计,得到下图。看到那条橙色线了吗?它是两代人的分隔线。非常有戏剧性。好像要当大企业ceo,你就必须出生在那个时期似的。

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这个现象只是商界吗?也许不是。因为学术界的大学校长们的年龄,似乎也呈现相似的“与时俱进”的趋势

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财富

虽然 Boomer 们在劳动力市场十分活跃,但他们因此而积累了大量的财富吗?可能并不是。因为在相同年龄时,他们的财富比(Household Wealth Percentage)远小于 Silent 那一代。

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在此说明一个财富比的概念,它在数值上是一个比例值,其实际意义却是在经济生活中的财富地位

Household wealth percentile is the dollar amount below which a given percentage of households fall. For example, the 90th percentile of household wealth is the value that 90 percent of households’ wealth is less than.

换句土话说,就是你的财产“击败”了百分之多少的美国人。

也就是说,Boomer 位要不停奋斗才能保证在全国 50% 左右的财富地位。有句话怎么说来着?对了,叫劳动致富。

但silent一代的问题是,他们的财富随着年龄的增长快速缩水。有些老无所依的味道。

当然,这张图也解答了另一个问题,出生于 1965 年之后的 Gen X Y Z 们,他们比上一代人过的更好吗?显然不是。因为他们在 35 到 47 岁之间的财富比更低,不会超过 20%,几乎只能达到boomer一代同年龄时的一半。有句话怎么说来着?对了,叫世界是我们的,也是你们的,但归根到底。

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张春成
V2