张春成

V2

2022/11/05阅读:17主题:默认主题

Bibi is back

Bibi is back, and Israel faces a dilemma over democracy

Leaders[1] | When doves cry

Though Binyamin Netanyahu is riding high, he cannot forget the Palestinians

Binyamin Netanyhu (内塔尼亚胡)正在上位,(但)他不能忘记 Palestinians 人。(暂时不明白是褒是贬,看完后发现是阿拉伯国家害怕他受到宗教狂热分子的影响(?)而不给阿拉伯人活路)

November 5, 2022 1:29 AMShare


https://www.economist.com/img/b/1424/801/90/media-assets/image/20221105_MAP505.jpg
https://www.economist.com/img/b/1424/801/90/media-assets/image/20221105_MAP505.jpg

As israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Binyamin (“Bibi”) Netanyanhu has once again proved himself a masterful campaigner, a wily creator of electoral alliances, and a national leader in whom a solid slice of Israeli society is still happy to put its trust. Following a general election on November 1st, his right-wing Likud party gained only a little ground. But thanks to his tactical acumen, Mr Netanyahu looks destined to build a coalition that will command a majority of several seats in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. On the face of things, the irrepressible Bibi is once again riding high. Yet there are reasons to bemoan his return to power.

以色列历史上任期最长的总理,内塔尼亚胡(Bibi)再次证明他是一他有力的竞争者,他是竞选联盟的创始人之一,他作为一名国家元首,以色列社会(有相当一部分)坚实的阶层仍然对他寄予厚望。在 11 月 1 日的选举中,他的右翼 Likud 党只取得了一小部分席位。但有赖于他的高瞻远瞩,Bibi 开始建立起一个联盟,能够在 120 名成员的以议会,Knesset,中掌握多数席位。就目前的情况来看,不可阻挡的 Bibi 正在重回巅峰。但也有理由对他的回归表示担忧。(译者,这个担忧主语是谁?作者虽然没有用问号,但这应该是本文要解决的问题。如果扣题的话,这很胡可能是以的邻居。)

Under his aegis, Israel will remain safe and prosperous, at least in the short run. It faces no looming threat to its existence. Iran, long suspected of trying to build a nuclear weapon that would menace Israel, is preoccupied with its own internal turmoil. Israel’s peace treaties with two immediate neighbours, Egypt and Jordan, are secure. Threats from Syria and Lebanon have faded as those countries wallow in their own distress. The Abraham accords, which were achieved during Mr Netanyahu’s previous administration in 2020, have normalised Israel’s relations with another four Arab states, including Morocco and the United Arab Emirates. Even Saudi Arabia, the beating heart of Islam, seems ready for tacit relations with the Jewish state.

在他的时代,以色列将会持续安全和繁荣,至少在短期来看(是这样的)。它(指以色列)的存在并不会面临紧迫的威胁。伊朗,很长一段时间里都被怀疑要制造核武器威胁以色列,正受困于国内的暴动。以色列的(另外)两个和平威胁来自陆地接壤的邻居,埃及和约旦,目前(对以色列来说)是安全的。来自叙利亚和黎巴嫩的威胁也在减小,因为他们忙着处理自己(内部)的压力。在 Bibi 之前在位的 2020 年签署的 Abraham 条约,(保证了)以色列与其他四个阿拉伯国家之间的关系正常化,包括摩洛哥和阿联酋。甚至阿拉伯世界“跳动的心脏”沙特阿拉伯,似乎也已经默认了与(这个)犹太国家之间的关系。

So Mr Netanyahu may reckon he can continue, even more comfortably than before, to ignore the Arabs under Israel’s own occupation, even though their lives in the West Bank and Gaza remain wretched. Divided as ever, the Palestinians have a leader in Mahmoud Abbas, now 86, who lacks energy and legitimacy, with no credible successor in the offing. The Gaza Strip, the other chunk of a would-be Palestinian state, run by the blinkered Islamists of Hamas, is still blockaded by both Egypt and Israel. Periodic outbreaks of revolt in both territories are ruthlessly squashed. Mr Netanyahu in the past has paid lukewarm lip service to the notion of the two areas becoming the basis of a Palestinian state, though Likud as a party has never endorsed it.

因此 Bibi 可能会意识到他能够,甚至比以前更加惬意地,继续忽视被以色列占领的阿拉伯世界(地区),即使他们在约旦河西岸和加沙地区的生活依旧艰难。巴基斯坦的领导人 Mahmoud Abbas 已经 86 岁高龄,缺乏精力和正统性,但(他们)并没有合格的继任者,(因此)仍然分裂。加沙地带,另一大块原巴基斯坦领土,(目前)被伊斯兰极端组织哈马斯控制,目前仍然被埃及和以色列封锁着。在两个控制区内周期性爆发的暴乱(能够)被无情镇压。Bibi 曾经用不冷不热的嘴炮声称两个地区正在成为巴基斯坦国家的基础,虽然利库德作为一个政党从来没有承认过。

The recent election to the Knesset has highlighted the admirable vigour of Israeli democracy within its own internationally recognised borders in a region where freedom of political choice is limited. But so long as the Israelis control the territories they occupy without the Palestinians having a proper say over their own destiny, Israel cannot itself claim to be a true democracy. Mr Netanyahu has yet to grapple with that dilemma. He may not need to do so in the short term. But it will not go away.

近期 Knesset 的选举(再次)显示了以色列民主的可敬的生命力,尤其是在它自身的国际认同边界内,它的政治选择的自由度是很受限的。但是,只要以色列控制的占领领土不允许巴基斯坦人对他们自己的命运有适度的话语权,那么以色列就不能说它是真实的民主(国家)。Bibi 也仍然陷在这个困境中。在短任期中,他可能不是必须这么做(译者:应该说是“解决这个问题”更合适)。但这个问题却不会消失。

Worse, his recent electoral success—and his ability to create a ruling coalition—has depended on a lamentable alliance with the Religious Zionism list, a horrible right-wing bloc which includes the Jewish Power party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, now its co-leader. Mr Ben-Gvir is ferociously hostile to Arabs and has suggested that those who have Israeli citizenship—about a fifth of the total population—should be expelled if deemed “disloyal” to the Jewish state. Religious Zionism also wants to curb the powers of the supreme court. It may also make it easier for Mr Netanyahu to fend off the charges of corruption which he has been facing for the past two years.

更糟糕的是,他最近选举的成功,以及他能够组建统治联盟(的基础),是依赖于与宗教狂热分子的令人失望的结盟,这是个臭名昭著的右翼党团,包括 Jewish Power 党,它的创始人是 Itamar Ben-Gvir,现在是它的共同领导人。Ben-Gvir 对阿拉伯极端敌视,(他甚至)建议有以色列公民身份的人(指穆斯林),这部分人占以色列人口的五分之一,如果他们被指控对犹太国家“不忠”的话,则应该被流放。宗教狂热者甚至希望减小最高法院的权力。这或许也能够帮助 Bibi 摆脱近两年来面对的腐败指控。

It is a pity that Yair Lapid, who has been prime minister for the past half-year and will remain in office until Mr Netanyahu is voted in by the new Knesset, failed to renew his mandate. He performed well on several fronts, among other things achieving a deal to demarcate a maritime border with Lebanon that should let Israel exploit and sell gas from under the sea. His unwieldy eight-party coalition included for the first time an independent Arab Israeli one. It was the failure of the Arabs this time to unite in a single list that weakened Mr Lapid’s chance of returning to power.

Yair Lapid 就显得有点可怜,因为他连任失败,他在过去半年里担任以色列总理,并且将会一直任期到 Bibi 被新的 Knesset 推选为总理。他在许多前沿(领域)表现良好,其中最突出的是与黎巴嫩通过外交途径确定了海上边界,它使得以色列能够通过海上出口和出售天然气。他笨重的八党联盟首次纳入了一个独立的 Arab Israeli (联合党)。而导致 Lapid 失去连任机会的(一个原因)是阿拉伯人在这次没有团结成一条心。

It was also a shame that, for the first time since 1992, Meretz, a left-liberal party that has striven to make peace with Palestinians, narrowly failed to cross the threshold of 3.25% of the total vote, which is the minimum requirement for winning a seat in the Knesset under Israel’s system of proportional representation. The Labour party, which has reigned for longer than any other, has shrunk to only four seats. There is still a chance, albeit slim, that the centrist parties, such as Mr Lapid’s Yesh Atid, which came second, could agree to join Mr Netanyahu in a broader coalition—provided that Mr Ben-Gvir and his firebrands are kept out.

同样令人失望是,自 1992 年来首次地,Meretz 这个力主与巴基斯坦和平的左翼自由政党,在总选举中以微弱差距没能超过 3.25% 的阈值,因此在以色列比例代表制的政治系统中,没能获得在 Knesset 中的席位。而劳动党,作为以色列成立时间最长的党,已经缩减到了仅有四个席位。现在还有一线希望,尽管渺茫,这就是目前排名第二的 Lapid 的 Yesh Atid 党能够与 Bibi 的党形成更广泛的联盟,当然前提是 Ben-Gvir 和他的火药桶们被排除在外。

The pragmatic and peace-minded centre and left of Israeli politics are not dead. But they have once again done themselves harm by failing to unite. Mr Netanyahu is plainly the beneficiary. But at what cost? If Religious Zionism gains ground under Mr Netanyahu’s umbrella, Israel’s claim to be a liberal democracy, irrespective of the plight of the Palestinians, may be grievously undermined.

那些实用主义与和平主义的中间和左翼以色列政治家并没有死。但他们再一次地未能团结起来,导致自己受损。而 Bibi 是受益者。但并非是没有代价的,假如宗教狂热分子在 Bibi 的庇护下获得了土壤,那么以色列对于自由民主的宣称,以及与巴基斯坦困境无关的宣称,可能会受到损害。

It would also make it harder for Israel to build on the Abraham accords. Those Arab countries which have shown an admirable willingness to coexist peacefully with Israel should press Mr Netanyahu to let Israel’s own Arabs have a proper voice, either in a state of their own or in a wider entity encompassing the Palestinian territories and Israel. With the Religious Zionists leaning on Mr Netanyahu’s shoulder, this seems miserably unlikely to happen. But one day one of those options will have to be tried. ■

这也会使以色列履行 Abraham 协议的难度增大。有些阿拉伯国家已经对与以色列和平共处表现出了令人钦佩的意愿,而这些国家(势必)会给 Bibi 施压,从而使以色列国内的穆斯林拥有合适的话语板,而这些地区不仅包括以色列国内,也包括以色列控制的包括马基斯坦在内的广大地区。可悲的是,由于宗教狂热分子盘踞在 Bibi 的肩膀上,因此这可能很难成真。但至少应该试一试。

参考资料

[1]

Leaders: https://www.economist.com/leaders/

分类:

阅读

标签:

资讯

作者介绍

张春成
V2