张春成

V2

2022/12/19阅读:25主题:默认主题

The world in brief【2022-12-17】

The world in brief【2022-12-17】

Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter


【俄罗斯】【战争】卷土重来

Russia launched more than 70 missiles on Ukraine in its second mass air strike in a matter of days, damaging energy infrastructure in Kyiv, the capital, and elsewhere, killing two. Kherson, in southern Ukraine, was left without power and Kharkiv, in the east, saw its electricity, heating and water supplies cut. Meanwhile, General Valery Zaluzhny, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, told The Economist that the Russians are preparing for a major Russian offensive in the next few months, including “another go at Kyiv”.

俄罗斯在几天内第二次大规模空袭中向乌克兰发射了 70 多枚导弹,破坏了首都基辅和其他地方的能源基础设施,造成两人死亡。乌克兰南部的赫尔松停电,东部的哈尔科夫停电、供暖和供水。与此同时,乌克兰武装部队负责人瓦列里·扎卢日尼(Valery Zaluzhny)将军告诉《经济学人》(the Economist),俄罗斯人正在为俄罗斯在未来几个月的大规模进攻做准备,包括“再次进攻基辅”。

【全球】【经济、就业】这好像是第一家吹哨的金融公司

Goldman Sachs will reportedly lay off several thousand employees and slash bonuses as it retreats from its planned consumer business. Semafor, a news site, reported that the firm could shed 8% of its staff, a more substantial cut than rival banks. Its consumer-facing unit, Marcus, is not profitable, and Goldman’s share price has fallen by nearly a tenth this year.

据报道,高盛将裁员数千人,并在已计划的消费业务中削减奖金。新闻网站 Semafor 报道称,该公司可能会裁员 8%,这比竞争对手银行的裁员幅度更大。其面向消费者的部门马库斯(Marcus)没有盈利,高盛股价今年下跌了近十分之一。

【全球】【金融、比特币】处理浮盈的关键是套现离场

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, said it had processed $6bn in net withdrawals between Monday and Wednesday, as FTX’s collapse continued to unnerve crypto investors. On Friday Mazars Group, an accounting firm, said it would stop producing “proof of reserve” reports—a much skimpier version of a standard audit—for Binance. Binance said it was searching for another firm to do so, to provide “transparency” and reassure customers.

全球最大的加密货币交易所 Binance 表示,由于 FTX 的崩溃继续令加密货币投资者感到不安,该交易所在周一至周三期间处理了 60 亿美元的净取款。周五,一家会计师事务所 Mazars Group 表示,它将停止编制“准备金证明”报告,这是 Binance 标准审计的一个少得多的版本。Binance 表示,正在寻找另一家这样做的公司,以提供“透明度”并让客户放心。

【欧盟】【互联网】互联网不是法外之地,全球皆然

The European Commission threatened Twitter with sanctions if “red lines” were crossed. The warning came after the social-media platform banned some journalists who had written about its new owner, Elon Musk. Vera Jourova, the commissioner for “values and transparency”, called the suspensions “worrying” and hinted that they could violate the EU’s Digital Services Act—a draft law targeting big tech that could come into force next year.

欧盟委员会威胁说,如果越过“红线”,推特将受到制裁。这一警告是在社交媒体平台禁止了一些曾报道其新主人埃隆·马斯克的记者之后发出的。“价值观和透明度”专员维拉·茹罗娃(Vera Jourova)称,这些暂停措施“令人担忧”,并暗示它们可能违反欧盟的《数字服务法案》(Digital Services Act),这是一项针对大型科技的法律草案,将于明年生效。

【秘鲁】【政治】一塌糊涂的选举政治

Peru’s Congress rejected legislation by the new president to bring forward elections by more than two years, to December 2023—a proposal intended to quell protests over the ouster of her predecessor, Pedro Castillo. Eighteen people have died in the clashes; two cabinet ministers have resigned. About 5,000 tourists have been stranded in Cusco, near Machu Picchu, after protesters stormed the airport.

秘鲁国会拒绝了新总统提出的将选举提前两年多至 2023 年 12 月的立法动议,该提案旨在平息对前任佩德罗·卡斯蒂略下台的抗议。18 人在冲突中死亡;两位内阁部长已经辞职。抗议者冲击机场后,大约 5000 名游客滞留在马丘比丘附近的库斯科。

【美国】【能源】大军未动粮草先行

The Biden administration said it would buy 3m barrels of oil in February to replenish America’s strategic reserves, after overseeing the largest drawdown from the stockpile since the mid-1980s. The move is intended to spur production by domestic firms, who alone are eligible to supply the stuff. In March the administration sold 180m barrels from the stockpile.

拜登政府表示,将在 2 月份购买 300 万桶石油,以补充美国的战略储备。此前,拜登政府监督了自 20 世纪 80 年代中期以来最大规模的石油储备削减。此举旨在刺激国内企业的生产,只有国内企业才有资格供应这些产品。3 月,政府出售了 1.8 亿桶库存。

【印度、中国】【边境】边疆

India tested a long-range, nuclear-capable missile amid rising tensions with China. The Agni-5 has a range of 5,400km (encompassing all of the Chinese mainland) and will “strengthen national security to a greater extent”, according to an Indian official. Last week Indian and Chinese soldiers brawled along a disputed border in the eastern Himalayas. Their delegations to the UN meanwhile exchanged sharp words in New York.

在与中国日益紧张的局势中,印度试射了一枚具有核能力的远程导弹。据一名印度官员称,烈火-5 的射程为 5400 公里(包括中国大陆全境),将“在更大程度上加强国家安全”。上周,印度和中国士兵在喜马拉雅山脉东部边界发生冲突。与此同时,他们在联合国的代表团在纽约交换了尖锐的言辞。

【德国】【能源】当饥饿的德国再次依赖海运……

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**Germany shores up its gas supply** On Saturday Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, and Robert Habeck, his economy minister, will inaugurate the country’s first import terminal for liquid natural gas (LNG) in Wilhelmshaven, on the North Sea coast. On Thursday the Hoegh Esperanza, a specialised vessel that can regasify liquid gas, arrived in the town. The deliveries come as Germany wrestles with a cut in gas imports from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The new equipment will feed at least 5bn cubic metres of natural gas per year into Germany’s gas grid. That is around 6% of the country’s demand, and will replace approximately 11% of imports from Russia, according to Uniper, a utility. (After Russia, Norway and the Netherlands are the next biggest gas suppliers to Germany; LNG deliveries will flow from Qatar in 2026 under a recently inked deal.) Uniper expects the first LNG tanker to dock at the Hoegh Esperanza in early January. Germany will inaugurate two further LNG terminals before the end of the year. They can’t come soon enough.

德国加强天然气供应

周六,德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨(Olaf Scholz)和经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克(Robert Habeck)将在北海沿岸的威廉港(Wilhelmsawn)为该国首个液化天然气(LNG)进口码头揭幕。周四,Hoegh Esperanza 号,一艘可以再气化液态气体的专用船抵达了该镇。

在德国入侵乌克兰后,德国正在努力削减从俄罗斯进口的天然气。新设备每年将向德国天然气管网输送至少 50 亿立方米的天然气。据公用事业公司 Uniper 称,这大约是该国需求的 6%,将取代约 11%的俄罗斯进口。(仅次于俄罗斯、挪威和荷兰是德国的第二大天然气供应商;根据最近签署的协议,液化天然气将于 2026 年从卡塔尔交付。)Uniper 预计,第一艘液化天然气油轮将于 1 月初在 Hoegh Esperanza 码头停靠。德国将在年底前启用另外两个液化天然气接收站。他们不会来得太快。

【爱尔兰】【政治】现世不安,人们怀念旧时光

**Ireland’s previous prime minister returns** Leo Varadkar, the leader of Fine Gael, one of Ireland’s two dominant political parties, will become taoiseach (prime minister) for a second time on Saturday. Under a “rotating taoiseach” deal thrashed out in 2020 Michael Martin, the leader of Fianna Fail, with which Fine Gael rules in coalition, held the job for the first half of the current parliament. Now it is Mr Varadkar’s turn again (he previously served from 2017-20). He is already off to a rocky start, even before he officially takes office. Last month, following surveys suggesting that many of Ireland’s young renters are considering emigrating in order to find affordable housing, Mr Varadkar harrumphed that they couldn’t expect to do better abroad. His dismissive comments provoked derision from emigrants who reported finding cheaper rents in Amsterdam, Berlin and Paris. A recent poll finds waning support for both ruling parties. Sinn Fein, an insurgent outfit, will probably win the most seats at Ireland’s next election.

爱尔兰前总理回归

爱尔兰两个主要政党之一的 Fine Gael 的领导人利奥·瓦拉德卡尔(Leo Varadkar)将于周六第二次出任总理。根据 2020 年达成的一项“轮流选举”协议,费恩盖尔与费恩纳失败党(Fianna Fail)的领导人迈克尔·马丁(Michael Martin)担任了本届议会上半部分的职务。现在又轮到瓦拉德卡先生了(他之前在 2017-20 年任职)。甚至在他正式上任之前,他就已经开始了艰难的起步。

上个月,调查显示,许多爱尔兰年轻租房者正在考虑移民,以寻找负担得起的住房。瓦拉德卡先生抱怨说,他们不可能在国外做得更好。他的轻蔑言论引起了移民的嘲笑,他们报告说在阿姆斯特丹、柏林和巴黎找到了更便宜的租金。最近的一项民意调查发现,两个执政党的支持率都在下降。叛乱组织新芬党(Sinn Fein)可能会在爱尔兰下届选举中赢得最多席位。

【联合国】【环境】环境问题逃不开国家间彼此倾轧的贪婪欲望

**Why understanding biodiversity is hard stuff** This week the Mexican delegation at the UN biodiversity summit in Montreal began offering a bottle of tequila for every point on which negotiators found agreement in one of the texts. The objective of COP15 (not to be confused with COP26, the climate conference in November) is to hash out a global agreement to reverse the worst damage that humans have inflicted on nature. That is hard, for both scientific and political reasons. The climate system, while complex, is mostly governed by physics and can be simulated using models. Ecosystem modelling, however, is in its infancy. Ecosystems are composed of vast networks of organisms interacting in complicated ways. More funding for scientific research worldwide would help. So would action to address the drivers of biodiversity loss, like pollution and land use. Both are under discussion in Montreal, though neither debate will go down smoothly.

为什么了解生物多样性是件困难的事

本周,在蒙特利尔举行的联合国生物多样性峰会上,墨西哥代表团开始为谈判代表在其中一份文本中达成一致的每一点提供一瓶龙舌兰酒。COP15(不要与 11 月的气候大会 COP26 混淆)的目标是达成一项全球协议,扭转人类对自然造成的最严重破坏。出于科学和政治原因,这很难。

气候系统虽然复杂,但主要受物理控制,可以使用模型进行模拟。然而,生态系统建模尚处于起步阶段。生态系统是由以复杂方式相互作用的巨大生物网络组成的。为世界各地的科学研究提供更多资金将有所帮助。解决生物多样性丧失的驱动因素(如污染和土地利用)的行动也是如此。这两个问题都在蒙特利尔进行讨论,尽管这两个辩论都不会顺利进行。

【美国】【艺术、电影】艺术有时是荒诞的,唯此荒诞才能描述极端撕裂的社会

**An immigrant babysitter’s disquiet in “Nanny”** “Nanny”, a film that arrived on Amazon Prime on Friday, is a vivid psychological thriller about Aisha (Anna Diop), a Senegalese woman who works for a white family in New York. The child she looks after is sweet, but the mother doesn’t pay on time, and the father is a bit of a creep. Aisha stands up to her privileged employers, yet her discomfort grows like a storm, triggering nerve-jangling hallucinations. The American director, Nikyatu Jusu, drew on her own experiences to evoke her character’s alienation (Ms Jusu’s parents hail from Sierra Leone). Aisha sends money to her son in Senegal, and though she finds glimpses of community in New York, the boy’s absence haunts her room in her employers’ sleek apartment. The first horror film to take the top jury prize for an American drama at the Sundance film festival, “Nanny” touches on class, race, labour and immigration, building slow-burn menace from Aisha’s growing dread.

《保姆》中移民保姆的焦虑

《保姆》(Nanny)是一部周五登陆亚马逊 Prime 的电影,是一部生动的心理惊悚片,讲述了为纽约一个白人家庭工作的塞内加尔女性艾莎(安娜·迪奥普饰)。她照顾的孩子很可爱,但母亲没有按时付款,父亲也有点讨厌。艾莎勇敢地面对她的特权雇主,但她的不适感却像暴风雨一样增长,引发了神经紧张的幻觉。

美国导演尼基亚图·朱苏(Nikyatu Jusu)利用自己的经历唤起了角色的疏离感(朱苏的父母来自塞拉利昂)。艾莎给她在塞内加尔的儿子寄钱,尽管她看到了纽约的社区,但这个男孩的缺席仍然困扰着她在雇主时尚公寓的房间。《保姆》是第一部在圣丹斯电影节上获得美国戏剧最高评委奖的恐怖电影,它触及了阶级、种族、劳工和移民,从艾莎日益增长的恐惧中建立起了缓慢燃烧的威胁。

【土耳其】【选举】一名来自极端民族主义的黑海地区的土耳其人决定去竞选

**Weekend profile: Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul facing prosecution** As the former head of his family’s construction company, Ekrem Imamoglu says he often saw projects get bogged down by politics. He says he entered politics to untangle the red tape. That line got him elected mayor of a suburb of Istanbul in 2014 as a member of Turkey’s main opposition outfit, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Five years later Mr Imamoglu was elected mayor of the whole city, but only after Justice and Development (AK), the party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, contested the initial vote. Mr Imamoglu won the rerun election by a landslide. His victory was a heavy blow for Mr Erdogan, himself a former mayor of Istanbul who is fond of saying that “whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey”. As mayor Mr Imamoglu has focused on quality-of-life issues in Europe’s most populous city, expanding the metro to ease traffic and improving storm-drainage to reduce flash-flooding. The president knows that the opposition’s successful management of Istanbul poses risks to his 20-year tenure in office, given that presidential elections are expected by June 2023. The CHP has yet to name a candidate to take on Mr Erdogan, and Mr Imamoglu has stayed mum on his ambitions for higher office. But polls suggest that he is one of the opposition politicians best placed to unseat Mr Erdogan at the ballot box. Naturally charismatic, Mr Imamoglu is a rare unifying figure in Turkey’s polarised political landscape. He is religious and progressive. He is a Turk from the ultra-nationalist Black Sea region, but also appeals to minority voters like Kurds and Alevis. His appeal makes him a highly dangerous rival to Mr Erdogan. On December 14th a court in Istanbul convicted Mr Imamoglu of “insulting” the officials who had ordered the rerun of the Istanbul mayoral election, whom he had called “fools”. He was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison, and banned from holding political office. An appeal is under way, but if it fails the ruling could bar Mr Imamoglu from challenging Mr Erdogan and AK at any level. Supporters of Mr Imamoglu think the case is politically motivated. But most analysts reckon that, if his conviction is overturned, it could rally voters behind him. After all, Mr Erdogan was catapulted to power after serving four months in prison for reading a religious poem. A ruling in Mr Imamoglu’s favour by the appeals court could just see him follow suit.

周末简介:伊斯坦布尔市长伊马莫格鲁(Ekrem Imamoglu)面临起诉

作为其家族建筑公司的前负责人,Ekrem Imamoglu 表示,他经常看到项目因政治而陷入困境。他说,他从政是为了解开繁文缛节。这条路线使他于 2014 年当选伊斯坦布尔郊区市长,成为土耳其主要反对党共和人民党(CHP)的成员。五年后,伊玛莫格鲁先生当选为整个城市的市长,但只有在正义与发展(AK)之后,土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的政党才对最初的投票进行了角逐。Imamoglu 先生以压倒性优势赢得了重新选举。他的胜利对埃尔多安先生来说是一个沉重的打击,他本人是伊斯坦布尔的前市长,喜欢说“谁赢了伊斯坦布尔,谁就赢了土耳其”。

作为市长,Imamoglu 先生一直关注欧洲人口最多的城市的生活质量问题,扩大地铁以缓解交通,并改善暴雨排水以减少山洪暴发。总统知道,鉴于预计 2023 年 6 月将举行总统选举,反对派对伊斯坦布尔的成功管理给他 20 年的任期带来了风险。CHP 尚未提名一位候选人接替埃尔多安,而 Imamoglu 对其更高职位的野心一直保持沉默。但民调显示,他是最有可能在投票箱中击败埃尔多安的反对派政治家之一。

伊玛莫格鲁先生天生具有超凡魅力,在土耳其两极分化的政治格局中,他是一位罕见的团结人物。他是一个虔诚而进步的人。他是来自极端民族主义的黑海地区的土耳其人,但也吸引库尔德人和阿莱维斯等少数民族选民。他的吸引力使他成为埃尔多安先生的一个非常危险的对手。12 月 14 日,伊斯坦布尔一家法院裁定伊马莫格鲁“侮辱”下令重新举行伊斯坦布尔市长选举的官员,他称这些官员为“傻瓜”。他被判处两年零七个月监禁,并被禁止担任政治职务。上诉正在进行中,但如果上诉失败,裁决可能会阻止伊玛莫格鲁在任何级别挑战埃尔多安和正义与发展党。

Imamoglu 先生的支持者认为这起案件有政治动机。但大多数分析人士认为,如果他的定罪被推翻,可能会让选民支持他。毕竟,埃尔多安先生因阅读一首宗教诗歌而在监狱服刑四个月后,被推上了权力宝座。上诉法院对 Imamoglu 有利的裁决可能会让他效仿。

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张春成
V2